EUR/USD
The coming week will offer us more volatile news from Europe, but on the part of the United States remains a heated political issue. When the Democrats of America are outraged, that their President Donald Trump offers a solution of “differences”. At the moment, Trump is ready to make concessions on the part of immigrants, according to the US Department of Homeland Security, there are about 12 million illegal immigrants. On this week, there will be full-fledged negotiations, between the democratic forces and their President, while for a month almost a million people are without work and wages.
The UK’s exit from the Eurozone has created uncertainty in Europe. The consequences of the US trade war with China also bear fruit, the economy is slowing down, indicators fall, and investors are cautiously listening to the heads of regulators of EU members.
The week will start with a slowdown in the German producer of a price index (according to expectations), after that, there will be a meeting of the Eurogroup. Also, Tuesday will not bring good news. The current economic conditions and sentiment from ZEW in Germany will slow down.
Thursday will be one of the most important days for the European currency. On the first day, after the equator of the week will be released the data about business activity in the Eurozone, after that, there will be a meeting of the ECB, which will announce the decision on the interest rate. As expected, on the press conference of the head of the European regulator-Mario Draghi, we will hear about the postponement of a possible increase in the interest rate until the fourth quarter of this year. The European Union is dangerously close to a technical recession, which prevents the ECB from showing any confidence in the future.
The week will end for Europe with the business climate in Germany, where business expectations are also expected to the recession, in the worsening situation, in the first EU economy.
The US reports all week on its real estate sector, Tuesday – sales in the secondary housing market, Friday-sales of new housing. Only on Thursday, there will be preliminary data on business activity from Markit. There is little news from overseas, so much attention will be paid, to the political atmosphere inside the United States.
GBP/USD
The pound sterling will not be bored either. The uncertainty associated with the nature of the exit, will not give rest to Britain in the near future. The country’s leadership has not yet reached a consensus on Brexit. Today, at the beginning of the week, the British Prime Minister Theresa May will speak, what kind of statement will be difficult to predict at this moment. But the fact, that they will talk about Brexit.
On Tuesday, will release the data on average wages in the United Kingdom, as well as changes in the number of applications for unemployment benefits and changes in employment, and for dessert, the unemployment rate. Data is expected to be more positive than negative, or even neutral. On Wednesday, a member of the committee of monetary policy of the Bank of England, doctor of economic sciences, a former economic adviser in the Treasury of Great Britain, Ben Broadbent will speak. The person is weighty, so his speech will pay worthy attention.
The rest of the market participants attention will be focused on the progress, in the negotiations between Prime Minister of Albion, with the parliamentarians of London. There is no agreement, in the British government, any positive will be immediately played out, regardless of the economic data.
OIL
Black gold updates the highs of the current year, against the background of a reduction in the number of drilling rigs in the USA, as much as 21 units. The maximum reduction led to the rollback of the number of drilling rigs, to the value of May of the last year, when the US-China trade war was just beginning.
Additional support for oil quotation, found in stable demand for raw materials in China. Despite the reduction in economic growth, the decline in GDP growth of China, the second consumer in the world of black gold, consistently consumes 12.1 million barrels per day.
The refining capacity of Chinese refineries increased to a record 603.57 million tons per day. This is in the context of China’s economic growth slowdown to the lowest level in the last 28 years, to 6.6%.
As every week, data on the state of inventory of raw materials and its products, in the US will be released on Wednesday. The US-China continue the trade negotiations, and America is expected to begin trade negotiations, with EU leaders this week, that will also support black gold, in the future.
